By Robert Inlakesh
As the first Muslim Arab state to normalize relations with Israel, Egypt’s experience offers a lesson for others eager to jump on the US President Donald Trump’s so-called Abraham Accords bandwagon.
A country teetering on the brink now, under the immediate threat of an Israeli military invasion and still attempting to finalize deals with the regime in Tel Aviv even after its normalization treaty was broken.
Egypt serves as a perfect case study for the Arab normalization model. A once independent regional power, exerting cultural, ideological and even military power throughout the Arab world and beyond, Cairo has devolved into a chaotic mess that is not only in economic and social decline, but is also largely beholden to the US, NATO military alliance and its Persian Gulf backers.
The road to Egyptian normalization with Israel began in the aftermath of the defeat in June 1967 war. Israel launched a surprise attack, dubbed “Operation Focus”, which wiped out most of the country’s air force while it was still on the ground.
In only 6 days, Tel Aviv’s offensive had succeeded at occupying East al-Quds, the West Bank, Sinai Peninsula, Golan Heights and Gaza.
Years later, Egypt’s President Gamal Abdul Nasser died of a heart attack. Until that moment, one of the dominant regional ideologies had revolved around his version of Socialist Arab Nationalism, popularly referred to as Nasserism.
However, unlike other ideologies, it was largely centered on a concept of one man and thus the defeat of this Arab nationalist wave came swiftly with the conclusion of the 1967 war.
During this period, the region underwent a major shift. Marxism gained popularity, nationalist movements surged, and Islamic groups slowly began to assert their presence as well.
Equally important was the evolution of US imperialist strategy in the West Asia region.
The US-Israel relationship soared to unprecedented heights, bolstered by intensified Zionist lobbying in Washington. Tel Aviv became Washington’s foremost regional ally in its Cold War battle for dominance, securing billions in aid and weapons.
Meanwhile, the memory of the Arab defeat in 1967 never faded and fueled greater resistance. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) rose in regional and global prominence, taking full leadership of the Palestinian liberation struggle, making Palestinians the main enemy of the US in the region.
In the midst of this, Egypt and Syria conspired to launch an offensive aimed at restoring Arab honour and reclaiming the territories occupied in 1967.
In 1973, what came to be known as the October War unfolded. Despite delivering stunning defeats to Israel and reclaiming occupied territories, the Egyptian forces under President Anwar Sadat halted their offensive. Meanwhile, the US rushed massive supplies to Israel, enabling it to regain the upper hand.
Due to Egypt’s decisions, interpreted by the leadership of Syria under President Hafez al-Assad as a betrayal, the Israelis managed to once again reoccupy the territories they had captured in 1967.
While a key takeaway here was that Israel was far from invincible and could be subjected to defeats, the power of the US proved sufficient to save Tel Aviv.
While Arab regimes used this as a lesson to back off, the most important lesson that was never truly learnt was that hesitancy is the real killer and that refusal to act eventually gives the more advanced enemy the time it needs to plan and move assets into position.
If the surprise attack from both Egypt and Syria had been followed through all the way, they may have succeeded.
Following the October War, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat swiftly decided to pivot Egypt toward the US, pursuing normalization with Israel and effectively abandoning the Palestinian cause.
In 1978, Egypt and Israel signed the Camp David Accords, setting the stage for the 1979 normalization agreement. In return, Egypt firmly aligned with the US-led bloc, receiving vast aid packages and integrating its defense arrangements with the West.
Between 1978 and 2022, the US granted Egypt over $50 billion in military aid and $30 billion in economic assistance. This alignment with the us also came at the expense of the military regime that had, in effect, run Egypt since 1952, implementing liberal economic reforms (enfitah) that eventually culminated in the assassination of President Sadat.
A key figure from Cairo’s military establishment, Hosni Mubarak, then assumed control for over three decades. Under his rule, Egypt pursued a US-backed neoliberal model, even as rampant corruption, state violence, incompetence, and crony capitalism steadily eroded the country.
Continuing to work in Israel’s favour, in 2005, Mubarak inked a 15-year multi-billion-dollar gas deal with Israel, aimed at supplying the occupying regime with 1.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year via an undersea pipe from al-Arish to Ashqelon.
Even on this deal, Mubarak worked closely with Eastern Mediterranean Gas (EMG) co-owner and Israeli Mossad asset, Hussein Salem, to sell Egypt’s gas for as little as $1.50 per million British Thermal Units (MBTU), when the international price was around $12.60. The result was that Salem and his Israeli partners reaped the profits while Egypt lost $11 billion in revenue.
Despite the announced “reforms” announced by Egypt in the early 2000s, the Egyptian people continued to suffer under a pro-US leadership that collaborated with Israel on various projects, while the country relied on US aid handouts to function.
The results of this normalization scheme by 2011, when the Egyptian revolution came, were that one in five Egyptians lived below the poverty line, as their rich elites lived in villas.
By 2021, some estimates put the poverty rate in Egypt at 58.50 percent, which was actually better than in the previous years. By 2023, Egypt stood on the brink of economic collapse and prior to October 7, 2023, it looked as if the situation was ready to deteriorate, before the IMF, European Union and UAE began stepping in to help it.
In 2022, another measure taken by Cairo was to begin selling off stakes in state-owned businesses to private corporations. The Persian Gulf states, which financed the rise of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to power in a military coup back in 2013, now own huge stakes in many formerly State-owned businesses.
Despite the Western-Arab lifeline, Egypt is only getting worse on the global Economic decline index, scoring a whopping 7.20, which has been rising since 2022.
Back in 2018, although Cairo had previously been exporting gas to Israel, the pipelines were reversed, and a new arrangement was struck for Egypt to purchase gas from Israel.
This ultimately culminated in the August 7, 2025, deal, in which Egypt committed to a \$35 billion gas agreement with the Israeli energy company NewMed.
Now, as Israel commits genocide in Gaza, Egypt is under another potentially existential threat and from the neighbouring entity that it sought to gain economic prosperity through.
Israel already violated the 1979 normalization agreement last year when it decided to invade the Rafah Crossing and Philadelphi Corridor, also murdering Egyptian soldiers and launching airstrikes into the Sinai, to which Cairo refused to respond.
Despite this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently confirmed his intention to advance the so-called “Greater Israel” project, which includes seizing Egyptian territory.
Last year, a campaign of incitement against Egypt emerged from pro-war think tanks and Israeli politicians, relying on fabricated claims to justify a potential Israeli invasion of the Sinai.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration repeatedly signaled its intent to ‘own Gaza’ and pursue ethnic cleansing, with little regard for Egyptian interests.
Although Egypt is often perceived as one of the region’s largest military powers, this reputation is misleading. Its actual military expenditure is relatively low compared to neighboring states, and soldiers’ salaries are so meager that some have resorted to running lemonade stands to supplement their income.
Compounding these issues, Egypt purchases advanced arms from Western nations without fully understanding how to operate them or integrate different systems effectively. In other words, these acquisitions serve Western weapons manufacturers more than Egypt’s actual defense strategy.
All of this unfolds as social tensions in Egypt continue to simmer, threatening to erupt into mass protests at any moment. A stark warning came last month when 21-year-old Ayman Abdel Wahhab was tortured to death while in police custody, sparking riots against the authorities. The public is also fed up with a constant stream of promised projects that either never materialize or benefit only the wealthy.
As the first Arab state to normalize ties with Israel, Egypt’s trajectory offers a cautionary tale for others contemplating the same path.
Normalization has undermined Egypt’s sovereignty, entrenched submission to external powers, enriched the elite, and pushed the broader population deeper into poverty and despair.
Today, the country teeters on the brink, bearing a stark warning for other Arab countries that are considering a similar course.
Robert Inlakesh is a journalist, writer and political analyst who has lived in and reported from the occupied West Bank.
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