Nine days have passed since the U.S.-Israeli camp imposed a war on Iran and the frequently asked question is, ‘what will be the ultimate outcome of this war?’
If we look at this war realistically, considering all aspects and monitoring events up to this moment, it appears this war will have a specific, yet very decisive, timeframe, approximately twenty days.
However, these twenty days cannot be viewed uniformly. They must be divided into two ten-day periods because the nature of the events occurring in these two phases is entirely different.
The first ten days are largely the period of "shock and equation change." In these ten days, whatever happens inside Iran, or within Tel Aviv and American bases in the region, goes beyond a simple military conflict.
What has occurred with the artistry of Iranian missiles in the skies over Tel Aviv and attacks on American bases in the region has already disrupted some global equations. Many countries previously had a different perception of the balance of power, viewing Iran as a contained, pressured regional power with no practical capacity for direct action against another country. But when they see the heart of the occupied territories coming under direct fire and American bases in the region being targeted, their calculations inevitably change.
Without a doubt, the result of this change in calculation will be seen in the political discourse of countries in the future. Countries like the UAE regarding the three islands, Azerbaijan regarding Zangzor and its secessionist rhetoric, and other countries that spoke to Iran with threatening or demanding language until yesterday will no longer be able to maintain the same tone. When a country's true power is displayed on the field, naturally, the language of politics also changes. This is one of the most significant achievements of the first ten days.
But most importantly, during these first ten days, a very significant psychological event also occurs: the shattering of the military prestige of the United States and the Zionist regime. For years, efforts were made to portray these two as invincible and inaccessible armies. But now, this image has collapsed and is no longer the same. From that moment on, many regional actors will no longer count on America as they did before, and the Abraham Accord will not be easily proposed as before.
However, if the first ten days are considered the phase of shattering Western prestige and changing the psychological atmosphere, the second ten days are the phase of determining the war's destiny. In this period, which lasts a maximum of 10 days, the main issue is no longer the display of power, but rather the reserves and operational capabilities of the two sides. The U.S. and Israel, especially in defense, and Iran, in offense, must demonstrate their capacity for sustainability. This is where the real equations of war become clear, and new power dynamics take shape.
The authoritative rhetoric of military commanders and the performance of Iranian missiles in the skies over occupied territories last night and tonight show Iran's full readiness, and the enemy's indiscriminate and chaotic attacks on Iranian facilities, including a refinery, airport, and desalination plant in Qeshm, indicate that the enemy's defensive capacity is dwindling, and with these desperate moves, they seek to deter Iran from continuing its attacks. Therefore, some predictions can be made even now, though we must wait.
But alongside this, in the second ten days, the war of narratives will also be extremely decisive. In such a war, media outlets are not merely observers but part of the battlefield. The enemy attempts to target the morale of society through psychological warfare, exaggerating its strikes and downplaying those of Iran, and censoring the truth to project an image of defeat or inability. Naturally, in such conditions, managing and controlling the media space becomes doubly important. Just as the opposing side censors many realities, internally, there must be serious management of narratives and information dissemination so that psychological warfare does not become a tool of the enemy.
If Iran can successfully navigate this second phase and solidify its superiority, the outcome of this war will be more than just a military victory. Iran will then enter a phase where its position in the global order will change astonishingly. A country that can stand against the West and the Zionist regime at such a level of conflict and emerge victorious will effectively become a superpower.
Of course, there is an important condition at that stage! The country's officials must correctly understand this new position and make decisions and take actions accordingly. If this understanding is formed, great events can unfold in the new equations that will surprise the entire world.