Trump's victory in the US presidential election surprised and confused politicians, analysts, and governments around the world. The internal developments in the US have a great impact on other countries due to its position in the international system. Trump's lack of political and governmental experience and his unexpected victory have surprised analysts. Now the fundamental question is what will Trump's foreign policy be like? To answer this question, four categories of effective components in the formation of US foreign policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran have been proposed and can be examined according to the characteristics of this period.
Trump's personal characteristics and intellectual and social origins
The structure of the US political system
The international system and systemic components
Iran's strategic environment; existing issues and interests
These components will shape the Trump administration's foreign policy towards the region and the Islamic Republic of Iran. In this framework and approach, it is possible to assess the goals and vital interests of countries, their limitations and obstacles, the achievements and costs of each government.
Trump's lack of political and executive experience has led to widespread ambiguity about his government's foreign policy. Trump is an investor in the housing and hotel sectors, has become famous for hosting several successful television shows; Schumann is considered a capable person who, in the eyes of his supporters, is successful in whatever he does. Authoritarian, misogynistic, and opposed to Muslim, African, and Latino immigrants are other personality traits. Based on such characteristics, its supporters are more likely to be in marginalized communities than in the mainstream of American society, those who are less educated than the average American and have been affected by economic globalization and immigration to the United States. Trump views politics through the lens of business, and based on this view, he strongly opposed the JCPOA during Iran's negotiations with Airbus to buy aircraft, claiming that the US gave the Iranians $150 billion and they would buy from Airbus instead of Boeing. His serious criticism of America's historic allies around the world is that they do not pay for their own security.
The American political system is based on the fundamental principle of "checks and balances." This principle governs between the branches of power at different levels and in different areas; between the three branches of government, between the federal government and the states, between the ruling and rival parties, between official and unofficial power. The selection of high-ranking government officials is by the president and with the approval of Congress. The rival party, the media, and public opinion monitor the policies and behavior of the government and discuss and examine them. The American bureaucratic system, while being the platform and agent for implementing the policies and decrees of the American president, also imposes many restrictions on it. Currently, Republicans practically control Congress, the White House, and the Supreme Court of the United States, which is unprecedented in American history. The unity of the official institutions of power allows Trump to advance his policies with minimal obstacles. Of course, Trump will face many challenges within the Republican Party and Congress because he was in conflict with the official structure during the election campaign. The official power structure in the United States is still not convinced of Trump’s personal approach and policies and is not aligned with them. The combination of personal characteristics and structural constraints and opportunities can create a situation in which political and security officials present in the Trump administration have more maneuvering power to determine and implement policies. Trump’s unfamiliarity with foreign policy and security issues provides a wide field for the foreign and defense ministers to act with greater authority on various issues. The presence of radical neoconservatives from the Bush era around Trump is not a favorable and appropriate sign for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of the five possible candidates for the Secretary of State, there is very little who does not have an extremely hostile view of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The international system and systemic factors are one of the effective components in the formation of the Trump administration’s foreign policy. As neorealists propose, the international system plays a major role in shaping the behavior of states in the international arena. The United States is the most influential power in the international system. US military spending accounts for more than 40% of the world's total military spending, it accounts for 22% of global GDP. It pays 25% of the annual costs of the United Nations. The United States has been the engine of globalization so far. More than 50% of the world's top 100 multinational corporations belong to the United States. Trump's rhetoric and priorities are practically against the mainstream of globalization and regionalism. Trump is seeking to cancel US free trade agreements with the European Union, East Asia, and even with Canada and Mexico. Protectionism is Trump's current approach. But how much this attitude can actually become US foreign policy is a matter of serious doubt. After entering the White House, Trump will face precise realities and will hear many "no"s from foreign parties. His statements during the election campaign have been more fanciful than rooted in the ground, and he has had ample opportunity to adjust his opinions and views.
There are many components in the strategic environment of the Islamic Republic of Iran that are effective in shaping Trump's foreign policy. The Middle East is a swamp of idealistic policies and imaginary rulers. The realities of this region are much harsher than for the new US rulers to design their foreign policy without paying attention to them and to regulate and secure their goals and interests without considering the vital interests of other governments and actors. The patterns of friendship and enmity in the Middle East are very complex. Confronting an enemy may lead to weakening a friend and ally, and supporting a friend may lead to strengthening the forces of the enemy. In such an environment, linear behavior cannot secure America's national interests. In Syria, Trump's cooperation and coordination with Russia cannot be accompanied by this country's hostility towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. The war against ISIS cannot proceed without considering Iran and the Kurds, Iraq and Syria. Close relations with Turkey conflict with support for the Kurds. Regional and extra-regional actors, governmental and non-governmental, their friendship and enmity have created a complex situation in the region, and it is still not possible to present a relatively acceptable picture of the Trump administration based on Trump’s words and statements. Its general propositions can be as follows: Saudi Arabia and Israel are counting down the minutes for the end of the Obama era. In their opinion, Trump is better than Obama in any case, although they had invested in Clinton. The US military presence and intervention in the region will be greater than during the Obama era. US arms sales to countries in the region will increase. Saudi and Israeli relations with the US will improve, but they will not be without challenges. The Jasta law will affect Riyadh-Washington relations. The destruction of ISIS has been declared the main goal of the US, but there are serious doubts about the practical fight against it by the US.
The Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the issues and topics raised in the US presidential election campaign, and Trump had taken a hostile stance against Iran during this time, but the serious question is how much of his rhetoric during the election period can be realized in practice and after entering the White House and being in the driving force of action, and how much will it change? Trump is facing many structural issues and problems within the US and its relations with regional and Western allies, and their impact on Trump's foreign policy will be very serious, but apart from that, what is important for the Islamic Republic is understanding the new conditions and developments that have occurred in the US. A period of transition and ambiguity and confusion has begun in US foreign policy. The extremist, inexperienced, and violent group in the US is in the driving force of decision-making and action. In such a situation, the condition of prudence is caution in verbal and practical action. The Islamic Republic of Iran should not expose itself to the attack of the neoconservative group around Trump. They will try to increase the pressure on the Islamic Republic by using the JCPOA, Iran’s missile program, imprisoned American citizens in Tehran, Iran’s regional policy, and human rights as an excuse, reproduce Iranophobia, and implement securitization in order to reach a consensus again on action against Iran in Washington, the international community, and regional countries. After the transition period in the White House, the strategic decision-making phase between Iran and the United States will begin, and it seems that the United States must choose between understanding and confrontation. The Islamic Republic of Iran does not seek confrontation, but rather resolving regional issues and problems and focusing on combating terrorism, and this fundamental principle of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy does not change with changes and developments in other countries. Their adherence to the above principle can be a good basis for reducing differences and building a better world for everyone.
Dr. Mahmoud Yazdanfam
