Mehdi Mohammadi

What is happening in the waters south of Iran is not a tactical conflict; it is a turning point in redefining the security order of the region.

The successful firing on an American aircraft carrier and destroyer was not just a military operation; it announced the birth of a new doctrine in Iran's defense strategy:

- "Strategic preemption"

- "Unbalanced and multiple response"

Hybrid warfare; from combination to initiative

The Iran-US war is no longer classic; it is a full-fledged hybrid war (economic, cognitive, naval, cyber, diplomatic).

But after 40 days, the US:

Neither opened the Strait of Hormuz

Nor stopped the nuclear program

Nor created internal chaos

Nor contained Iran's military power

Response to Trump's project to get out of weakness

Washington tried to regain its lost self-confidence with a new pressure package (sanctions, blockade, cognitive operations).

But Iran attacked the enemy’s strategy itself, not just its tools.

Our goal: We will never let Trump regain confidence, because with confidence he is more disastrous.

Settling scores with the Navy; America’s last military card

The US ground and air force have been expelled from Iran’s perimeter (18 bases closed, retreat to Jordan and Diego Garcia).

The only remaining one was the Navy, which is now the target of Iran’s fire.

Firing from shore to sea against a highly defensive fleet is one of the most difficult missile operations in the world.

And we are moving towards sinking an aircraft carrier.

The collapse of US deterrence

For decades, the US had absolute freedom of action in the region. Today, Iran is the only country that has successfully fired on the US from the air, land and sea.

The US deterrence is collapsing, and this medal of honor shines only on the chests of Iranian fighters.

A blow to the heart of the blockade and sanctions strategy

The new US pressure package was based on the Navy as an economic blockade tool.

A blow to this tool = the collapse of the “blockade and sanctions” combination.

The result: a sharp reduction in the escort capacity of oil tankers in the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz.

Asymmetrical response; the birth of Iranian deterrence

The “multiplier response” strategy for every blow, even a small one, brings Trump to the point that more pressure = more problems for the United States.

When the US intelligence community accepts that Iran will not comply with the terms, Iranian deterrence is born.

No-go zone; a new geopolitical leaf

The ability to coast to sea has allowed Iran to declare a “no-go zone” in the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of ​​Oman.

Reverse blockade; Iran’s new red line in southern waters.

The doctrine of preemption; determining the time and place of conflict

The enemy is no longer decisive; We determine where, when, and how the next war will begin.

The strategic initiative is in Iran’s hands.

Conclusion

What we are seeing is the gradual maturation of a new military doctrine; based on preemption, disproportionate response, settling scores with all components of the enemy’s war machine, and rewriting the deterrence equation.