When Saudi Arabia said in a letter to its oil buyers this week that it had no clear idea which port it would use for April exports, it revealed a new reality: Iran, not the US, holds the key to opening up global energy markets.
“I have to go call Iran and ask when this war is going to end so I know when I’ll finally get my oil,” one regular Saudi oil buyer said upon receiving the letter.
The comments reflect a growing conviction inside and outside the Middle East that while the US and Israel could declare an end to the war at any moment, Iran will have the final say on how long the crisis lasts.
A senior Gulf energy industry official says that even tanker escorts cannot restore normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that his company's tankers would remain in place until Iran guaranteed safe passage.
