1. National Unity: The Key to True Power

History has shown that any country under external pressure can only resist effectively if its people are united.

In Venezuela, political and factional divisions have made it easier for the U.S. and its allies to exercise economic and media influence.

When the people unite, no sanctions, threats, or external pressure can fully control the government or the nation.

2. Active Resistance, Not Passive

Resistance is not only military; economic, cultural, and political resistance is equally important.

Sanctions, psychological warfare, and media pressure can be countered through self-reliance, grassroots support networks, and maintaining national morale.

Venezuela’s experience shows that real power emerges when people are fearless and take responsibility for their own destiny.

3. The United States and Its Motives

Trump and successive U.S. administrations are fundamentally after Venezuela’s oil resources, not the welfare of its people.

U.S. focus is on oil, minerals, and natural revenues—not on citizens’ rights or prosperity.

Every political pressure or action from the U.S. is mostly a tool to control the country’s resources rather than help the population.

4. Key Conclusion

Only national unity + intelligent resistance can limit U.S. interference and conspiracies.

Maduro or any political leaders can succeed only if they have real backing from a united population.

Without popular resistance, economic and media pressure from the U.S. can weaken internal stability and reduce national independence.

Possible scenarios and their relative likelihood

Scenario 1: Full return of Maduro (low probability – around 15%)

This scenario would only occur if:

The Venezuelan military remains fully unified and loyal

Russia, China, or other allies provide practical, not just political, support

The United States concludes that the cost of the crisis is too high

The main weakness of this scenario:

The U.S. rarely withdraws completely once pressure has begun

Economic pressure is long-term and exhausting

Even Maduro’s allies prioritize stability over endless confrontation

Outcome:

If Maduro returns, he would likely return weaker, more constrained, and forced to make major concessions.

Scenario 2: Gradual removal of Maduro without state collapse (most likely – around 45%)

This is the scenario the United States generally prefers:

Maduro exits formal power (not necessarily through force)

A transitional government or managed elections are formed

State institutions, the army, and borders remain intact

Limited economic reopening toward the West

Key characteristics:

No sudden revolution

No full military occupation

No large-scale civil war

Outcome:

Venezuela does not become another Syria or Libya

But its political independence is significantly reduced

Foreign policy shifts decisively

This scenario is considered the most “manageable” by the U.S., Europe, and some regional actors.

Scenario 3: Chronic, long-term instability (around 30%)

In this case:

Maduro is neither fully removed nor fully restored

No replacement government fully stabilizes

Protests, sanctions, and economic hardship continue

Comparable cases:

Iraq after 2003

Lebanon in recent years

Outcome:

Ordinary people suffer the most

Emigration increases

The country remains weak but does not disintegrate

Scenario 4: Full collapse or civil war (low probability – around 10%)

This is the worst-case scenario, and current indicators do not strongly support it, because:

The Venezuelan military remains largely cohesive

Society is not deeply fragmented into heavily armed factions

Neighboring countries fear extreme instability

What is likely to happen to Maduro personally?

The most realistic forecast:

He is unlikely to return as a powerful sitting president

He may:

Remain in exile

Retain a symbolic or behind-the-scenes role

Exit politics in exchange for guarantees

Historical pattern:

Not a heroic survival like Fidel Castro

Not a violent downfall like Muammar Gaddafi

More similar to leaders gradually removed from power in Latin America

Venezuela’s future in one sentence

Venezuela will likely:

Remain a unified country

Experience reduced political and economic independence

Need many years to regain stability

Final, very direct conclusion

The United States is not seeking total destruction

It is seeking controllable influence

Maduro is unlikely to return, but removing him will be costly and gradual

The Venezuelan people will bear the heaviest burden

1. Political independence and breaking away from U.S. influence

The serious conflict began when:

Venezuela, starting in the era of Hugo Chávez, adopted a strongly anti-hegemonic policy toward the United States.

Strategic relations with Russia, China, Iran, and Cuba were expanded.

U.S. influence in Latin America was openly challenged.

From Washington’s perspective, Venezuela became: “A dangerous model for other countries in the region.”

2. Oil as the central issue

Venezuela:

Possesses the largest proven oil reserves in the world.

Nationalized its oil industry, pushing out major U.S. companies.

Sold oil outside frameworks preferred by the United States.

For the U.S., Venezuela represents:

A threat to energy security interests.

A challenge to liberal capitalist economic models.

An obstacle to controlling the regional energy market.

Accusations the United States has made against Nicolás Maduro

To justify pressure, the U.S. has consistently raised several accusations:

1. “Dictatorship and election fraud”

Claims that elections are not free or fair.

Labels Maduro’s government as illegitimate.

This is despite the fact that:

Maduro has been elected multiple times.

Some non-Western international observers have recognized aspects of these elections.

2. “Human rights violations”

Allegations of suppressing protests.

Claims of detaining political opponents.

These accusations are often used as a political tool, while U.S. allies with comparable or worse records are treated differently.

3. “Drug trafficking and corruption”

Accusations that Maduro and senior officials cooperate with drug cartels.

Publicly announced rewards for Maduro’s arrest.

This level of accusation is generally seen as a step toward: Legitimizing regime change rather than simply combating corruption.

What are the real U.S. strategies toward Venezuela? (Strategic analysis)

Without exaggeration or slogans, the commonly discussed scenarios are:

Scenario 1: Internal collapse

Severe economic sanctions.

Pressure on daily life to provoke social unrest.

Media campaigns to undermine the government’s legitimacy.

Objective:

Government collapse without direct military intervention.

Scenario 2: Installing a replacement government

Support for aligned opposition groups.

Recognition of an alternative “interim president” (such as Juan Guaidó in the past).

Seizure of Venezuelan assets abroad.

Objective:

Political control without military occupation.

Scenario 3: Sending a warning to Venezuela’s allies

Indirect pressure on countries such as Iran, Cuba, and Nicaragua.

Demonstrating the cost of defying U.S. influence.

Objective:

Maintaining regional hegemony.

What does the United States ultimately want?

In summary:

It does not want Venezuela to remain fully independent.

It does not want Venezuela to serve as an anti-U.S. resistance model.

It does not want Venezuelan oil resources to remain outside its influence.

It seeks instead:

A compliant government.

Open access for U.S. corporations.

The weakening or removal of resistance-aligned governments in Latin America.

Final summary

The U.S. problem is not simply Nicolás Maduro as an individual.

The core issue is an independent Venezuela.

Widespread Protests in Caracas and Across Venezuela

“Venezuelans Take to the Streets in Mass Demonstrations Against U.S. Attack”

People in Caracas and other cities have held large protests against the U.S. military assault, chanting slogans in support of national sovereignty and condemning the foreign intervention. Demonstrators have expressed anger over the bombings, the capture of President Maduro, and the violation of their country’s independence. Responses from protesters reflect deep resentment toward the attack and strong calls for unity and resistance among Venezuelans. 

Shock and Emotion After Capture of President Maduro

“Emotional Reactions Across Venezuelan Communities After Maduro’s Capture”

Photos and accounts from within Venezuela show a mix of intense emotional reactions among citizens — ranging from anger and horror to fear for the nation’s future after reports of President Nicolás Maduro’s capture by U.S. forces. Many ordinary people appear stunned and uncertain about what comes next, while public gatherings reflect both mourning and defiance. 

 Mixed International Eyewitness Reports Reflect Local Sentiment

“On-the-Ground Reports Describe Venezuelan Public in Shock and Defiance”

Eyewitness and Reuters summaries from the region indicate that Venezuelan society is largely in shock, with many civilians overwhelmed by the rapid military developments. There are also reports of fear about instability and concern for everyday survival alongside resistance to external intervention. 

“World in Shock — Colombia Condemns U.S. Attack on Venezuela and Maduro’s Detention”

Following the U.S. military intervention and reported detention of President Maduro, the President of Colombia publicly condemned the attack as unacceptable and a violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty. The Colombian government has put border security forces on alert amid concerns of escalating regional instability.

U.S. Strikes Venezuela and Captures Maduro; Trump Says U.S. Will ‘Run the Country’ for Now”

The United States launched a major military strike on Venezuela, targeting Caracas and other regions. President Donald Trump announced that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife have been captured by U.S. forces and removed from the country. Trump stated the U.S. will oversee the situation in Venezuela while further decisions are made. Strong explosions were heard across the capital. 

“Nicolás Maduro and His Wife Detained During U.S. Operation; Global Shock and Condemnation Intensify”

Detailed description of this stage:

Reports indicated that U.S. special forces launched a ground operation, during which Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were detained.

U.S. officials later confirmed the operation, stating that Maduro and his family had been transferred خارج of the country and that the United States would temporarily oversee security arrangements in Venezuela.

The operation was reportedly carried out with special forces supported by aerial surveillance and air cover, marking a major escalation from the initial airstrikes.

Casualties and internal situation in Venezuela:

Preliminary figures suggested that at least 12 people were killed and around 90 injured, though the numbers were not final and could increase as more information emerged.

Venezuelan military units attempted to establish defensive positions in the streets of Caracas, leading to heightened tension and clashes in several areas of the capital.

International reactions:

The attack triggered strong global reactions, with several countries and political movements condemning the operation as a violation of Venezuela’s sovereignty and international law, warning of dangerous consequences for regional and global stability.

“The United States Launches a Full-Scale Military Attack on Venezuela; Explosions Rock Caracas”

Detailed description of this stage:

In the early hours of last night, U.S. military fighter jets and aircraft carried out heavy airstrikes and launched cruise missiles, targeting military positions, bases, and key strategic facilities in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, and its surrounding areas.

Air-raid sirens and the sound of multiple powerful explosions were reported across different districts of the capital, confirming the intensity of the assault.

According to reports, the strikes focused on air bases, command-and-control centers, and critical military infrastructure belonging to the Venezuelan armed forces.

Initial information indicated that the air attack lasted for nearly one hour, causing widespread disruption and fear among civilians.

Response from Venezuelan authorities:

The Venezuelan government reacted immediately by declaring a state of armed defense and deploying military forces throughout major cities, particularly Caracas.

President Nicolás Maduro declared a nationwide state of emergency, calling on the Venezuelan people and the armed forces to remain united and prepared to resist foreign aggression.

Abu Ubaida was the nom de guerre of a prominent Palestinian resistance figure and the official military spokesperson of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas). For many years, he was known as the public voice of the Palestinian resistance, delivering statements and updates regarding developments in Gaza.

His real identity, which had remained concealed for security reasons, was later revealed to be Hudhayfa Samir Abdullah al-Kahlout. Abu Ubaida played a significant role in the media and psychological dimensions of the conflict, becoming a recognizable figure for supporters of the Palestinian cause across the region.

The Manner of His Martyrdom

In late 2025, the al-Qassam Brigades officially announced that Abu Ubaida had been martyred. According to the statement, he was targeted during an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip. The attack occurred several months earlier, and he later succumbed to the severe injuries he sustained.

His martyrdom reportedly took place alongside other resistance commanders, marking a major loss for the Palestinian resistance movement.

His Role and Legacy

Abu Ubaida was regarded as the primary military spokesperson of the resistance, responsible for communicating key messages, warnings, and announcements during times of conflict. His calm yet firm tone and consistent presence made him a symbol of steadfastness and resistance for many Palestinians and supporters worldwide.

Following his martyrdom, Palestinian resistance groups emphasized that the loss of leaders and commanders would not weaken their resolve, reaffirming their commitment to continue their struggle.

The Israeli military has announced that another Israeli soldier was found dead in the southern part of the occupied territories, in an apparent suicide.

The statement noted that a Military Police investigation has been opened, and upon its completion, the findings will be submitted to the Military Advocate General's Office for review.

This brings the number of Israeli troops who have taken their own lives since the start of the genocidal war on Gaza to more than 61.

The Israeli military went on to say that 22 cases of suspected suicide are currently under investigation or have been investigated, including 12 conscript soldiers, one career soldier, and nine reservists.

The development comes after an Israeli soldier took his own life at a military base in the northern part of the Israeli-occupied territories on December 16.

The Hebrew-language newspaper Haaretz reported that the soldier, serving as a tracker in regular military duty, shot himself inside the base. He sustained critical injuries and was later pronounced dead that evening.

From the beginning of 2024 to July 2025, a total of 279 Israeli soldiers attempted suicide, with roughly one completed suicide occurring for every seven attempts, as reported by the Knesset Research and Information Center.

In October, Israeli chief of staff Eyal Zamir highlighted a growing mental health crisis within the army, revealing that thousands of soldiers were undergoing psychological treatment.

He called on commanders to remain vigilant, identify mental health issues within their units, and ensure that affected soldiers receive prompt care.

Nearly 10,000 of the 19,000 Israeli soldiers injured in Gaza are currently dealing with psychological disorders, including post-traumatic stress disorder, and are receiving care through the rehabilitation department of the ministry of military affairs, according to a previous report by the public broadcaster KAN published in late July.

Israel has killed at least 71,269 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and injured 171,232 others in attacks in Gaza since October 2023.

A ceasefire implemented on October 10 of last year was intended to bring an end to the war. However, Israel has breached it on a daily basis, leading to hundreds of additional casualties.

Israel continues to impose restrictions on the entry of food and medicine into Gaza, where approximately 2.4 million Palestinians endure severe humanitarian challenges, according to the Gaza government media office.

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